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I Told You A Recession Was Coming... In The Next 10 Years

angry student
If you had just listened to me, I literally already told you this.

I literally called it.

If you had just listened to me, maybe you wouldn’t be so panicked right now. I mean, just a few weeks ago, I was telling you over lunch that we should expect a recession in the next decade, or so.

I even showed you the time series plots I made in STATA, which I cleverly named “Regressions for Recessions.” Since there have been recessions in 1991, 2000, and 2008, I naturally conducted a multivariate probit regression of recession likelihood on the past decade and the past 2 decades. And, it showed me that the 95% confidence interval didn’t contain 0 for the “2 decades” coefficient, which means that at the 5% significance level, we can conclude significance for the relationship between a recession and the span of 2 decades.

You barely flinched, intently focused on downing your bowl of Greek Lentil Soup. You finally looked up, unimpressed: “Yeah that makes sense - recessions are kinda cyclical.”

Well, who’s laughing now? I already knew internships were bust for the next ten years, so I made sure companies didn’t accept my applications. And, I haven’t saved any money in the last six months because I knew investing would yield losses, even with my advanced quantitative skills.

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